Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 8.981785 10.304147 11.728477 13.373586 15.218084 17.219048 19.550678
2026-01-18 6.835628 8.580318 10.607151 13.123220 16.149287 19.657277 24.016497
2026-01-25 5.835448 7.763695 10.114912 13.169383 17.006346 21.638295 27.621478
2026-02-01 5.087092 7.133272 9.739004 13.263227 17.862230 23.612420 31.290930
2026-02-08 4.451420 6.541504 9.307524 13.183001 18.410422 25.146528 34.399927
2026-02-15 3.919527 6.017737 8.895474 13.060583 18.850574 26.517853 37.321394
2026-02-22 3.542161 5.660855 8.662698 13.136670 19.526066 28.194524 40.685671
2026-03-01 3.302785 5.474425 8.643152 13.491813 20.584827 30.416472 44.866104
2026-03-08 2.946601 5.071544 8.267263 13.290243 20.819332 31.483014 47.468008
2026-03-15 2.549097 4.561080 7.682117 12.723507 20.468301 31.677591 48.814898
2026-03-22 2.409221 4.450868 7.699339 13.064457 21.472048 33.854247 53.085513
2026-03-29 2.264814 4.317514 7.665597 13.315857 22.341893 35.859042 57.172032
2026-04-05 2.060139 4.064753 7.424048 13.227346 22.691534 37.121101 60.241783
2026-04-12 1.867789 3.814393 7.165596 13.090498 22.951615 38.252395 63.156509
2026-04-19 1.721442 3.631644 7.004452 13.097722 23.432252 39.729250 66.639840
2026-04-26 1.605340 3.493421 6.908295 13.204692 24.074741 41.477627 70.602620
2026-05-03 1.471980 3.307831 6.711584 13.120082 24.385467 42.700483 73.770824
2026-05-10 1.346816 3.125187 6.504542 12.999796 24.622152 43.803380 76.776097
2026-05-17 1.258879 3.009098 6.411218 13.075007 25.193335 45.467414 80.737655
2026-05-24 1.211982 2.974230 6.468998 13.428889 26.265981 47.998982 86.201668
2026-05-31 1.104868 2.798629 6.239156 13.228076 26.336963 48.843754 88.893497
2026-06-07 0.969497 2.545311 5.833862 12.663699 25.715748 48.476019 89.527262
2026-06-14 0.936891 2.522193 5.893394 13.003235 26.766630 51.025126 95.185115